Methodology
A transparent compound-growth model
For month m, projected visits equal current monthly visits multiplied by one plus the monthly growth rate, raised to month m. Revenue equals visits multiplied by conversion rate and average conversion value. Cumulative revenue adds every projected month in the selected horizon.
Visits(m) = current visits × (1 + growth rate)m
Revenue(m) = visits(m) × conversion rate × conversion value
Cumulative revenue = sum of monthly revenue
Choose defensible inputs
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1
Start with measured organic visits
Use a representative recent month or a seasonally adjusted average. Do not mix paid, direct, or referral traffic into the baseline.
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2
Model a range of growth rates
Use historical performance when available. A conservative, base, and ambitious scenario communicates uncertainty better than one precise-looking number.
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3
Use organic conversion economics
Conversion rate and value should reflect the organic segment. For lead generation, use an expected customer value adjusted for lead-to-customer rate.
Worked example
Starting with 3,000 monthly visits and 8% monthly growth, month one reaches 3,240 visits. At a 2% conversion rate and $120 per conversion, that month produces $7,776 in modeled revenue. The tool repeats the same formula through the selected horizon and compares cumulative revenue with a flat-traffic baseline.
Limitations
Real organic growth is uneven. Rankings move in steps, demand is seasonal, competitors react, and conversion rates change. Compounding is useful for scenario planning but can become aggressive over long horizons. Rebuild the forecast with actual data every month or quarter, and never present it as guaranteed revenue.